Betting

74th Hunger Games odds board and wager station.

"I'm still betting on you."

—Cinna to Katniss Everdeen

Betting was a major part of the Hunger Games, both for people from the Capitol and those in the districts. It was introduced in the 10th Hunger Games. Katniss Everdeen mentioned people from District 12 betting on the two tributes reaped, and that "odds [were] given on their ages, whether [they were] Seam or merchant, and if they [would] break down and weep."

In the Capitol, betting took place throughout the Games, starting before training and increasing in intensity until a victor is determined. Various statistics are tracked and reported to help people place their bets, such as each tribute's list of kills. Some people close to the Games, such as head stylists and presumably Gamemakers as well, were not allowed to bet. Cinna mentioned that he was not allowed to bet, but if he could, he would put all his money on Katniss. Proceeds from betting were funneled toward the cost of the Games.

Betting activity was high around the opening of each Games, when the initial casualties occurred. However, betting rates further increased in the Capitol after the final eight, when interviews were conducted with the tributes' families.

History

10th Hunger Games

10th Hunger Games odds board

Betting was first implemented for the 10th Hunger Games. The idea was introduced by Coriolanus Snow after a comment from Festus Creed while the mentors were in a meeting about how to make the Games gain more viewers. While the Games occurred, crowds of Capitol citizens gathered around the Capitol Arena as they supported their tribute. On the third day of the Games, a fight between Coral fans and Treech fans started over who would be the victor, and Coriolanus was happy that fans of his tribute, Lucy Gray Baird, were better mannered.

Betting odds were not created yet. Prior to the start of the Games, Capitol citizens could visit their local post office between eight in the morning to eight at night to place bets. During the Games themselves, a phone number was made available for betting, though those who wished to bet in person at the post office could still do so.

The odds list for each tribute before the Games began (multiple numbers indicate changes seen during the film) were:

District	Male Tribute	Betting	Donations	Age	Female Tribute	Betting	Donations	Age
District 1	Facet	—	—	—	Velvereen	—	—	—
District 2	Marcus	25-1	1983	18	Sabyn	—	—	—
District 3	Circ	11-1	435	—	Teslee	15-1	119	—
District 4	Mizzen	5-1	2928	13	Coral	5-1	3541	—
District 5	Hy	15-1	190	—	Sol	12-1	447	—
District 6	Otto	15-1	188>1231	—	Ginnee:	—	—	—
District 7	Treech	3-1	3009	—	Lamina	20-1	27>110>118	15
District 8	Bobbin	12-1	188	14	Wovey	25-1	12>87	15
District 9	Panlo	12-1	346	—	Sheaf	20-1	107	—
District 10	Tanner	10-1	482	—	Brandy	—	—	—
District 11	Reaper	2-1	2507	18	Dill	90-1	22>123	—
District 12	Jessup	10-1	478	18	Lucy Gray	8-1	2151>247	16

74th Hunger Games

Betting played a role in how the tributes conduct themselves. Katniss tried to appear strong in the arena, because she believed that nobody would bet on "a tribute who keeps sniveling over the deaths of her opponents." When realizing Katniss intended to go to the feast in spite of her telling him otherwise, Peeta Mellark told her to never bet at cards, as she would "lose [her] last coin."

The film showed wager stations and the odds of each tribute winning. One odds board pictured was titled "Morning Line Odds," a term based on horse racing. Odds were continually updated over time and could be seen increasing or decreasing. Training scores gave the audience a starting point for betting that would continue throughout the Games.

The odds list for each tribute 3 days and 16 hours before the Games began (multiple numbers indicate changes seen during the film) were:

Hunger Games Movie: Morning Line Odds

District	Male	Age	Female	Age
1	Marvel: 5-1	17	Glimmer: 7-1	17
2	Cato: 3-1	18	Clove: 5-1	15
3	20-1, 22-1	14	30-1	13
4	15-1	12	10-1, 9-1	16
5	8-1	15	"Foxface": 7-1	14
6	24-1	16	23-1	17
7	5?-1	17	7?-1	16
8	3?-1	14	5?-1	13
9	22?-1	14	28?-1, 30?-1	14
10	15?-1	18	10?-1	16
11	Thresh: 10–1, 11–1, 8-1	18	Rue: 60-1	12
12	Peeta: 23?-1	16	Katniss: 23?-1	16

The odds for the tributes in the last 6 districts would be considered unknown as they are copies of the odds of the tribute with the same gender but six districts earlier. They are given a question mark.

Katniss and Peeta were given very low odds, presumably because they were from District 12; however, their odds were not seen when the camera focused on the District 11 tributes' odds. Rue's odds were a very low 60–1.

Cato had the highest odds at 3–1. The District 3 female ended with the lowest known odds of winning in the film.

Trivia

• The betting scene in The Hunger Games film was originally filmed as a scene at a cafe, but during the editing process, director Gary Ross felt there wasn't enough to link that scene with the one that came before it: Katniss and Peeta catching Rue watching them during training. He storyboarded what eventually became the CGI-animated sequence of the betting board, which completely transformed the scene.
• The odds expression b-a is the expected number of wins, a, after b losses. In other words, it is the chance of winning after a+b games, and the chances is expressed as a/(a+b).
  • Cato, with an odds of 3–1, would be killed three out of four games he participated (in case "time-reversals" are allowed). He therefore approximately had a 25% chance of winning the Games. Rue, with an odds of 60–1, will have roughly a 1/61 chance of winning the games.
  • If every tribute has equal odds of winning the Games, they will all have odds of 23–1. This is held by the District 6 female and possibly the male as well.
• There are two scenes in the film where the odds tables are shown.
  • In the first, the camera focuses on the District 11 tributes, showing Thresh's relatively high chance of winning, and Rue's extremely low chance of winning. The District 10 female's odds are also shown, with an odds of 10–1.
  • In the second, the camera focuses on the entire betting board. Note the odds on the tributes listed on the right side are almost copies of the odds of the tributes listed on the left side. Rue's odds also inexplicably went up to 7-1 due to this phenomenon.
• The odds tables are extremely inaccurate (possibly even incomplete) and over-stated even for a real-life morning line odds, and they sum up to much greater than unity.
  • In fact, the odds of the tributes on the right side of the betting board, from District 7 to 12, are mostly copies of the same-gender tribute six districts earlier. This explains why Rue has a betting odds of 7–1, and the District 8 male is also given odds of 3–1, tying with Cato. Because of this reason, most betting odds of tributes from the later 6 districts have unknown odds, as they did not put in any effort in determining the odds of the remaining tributes.
    • Rue is a notable exception, as she has a 60-1 odds, but on the scene where the listings of all the tributes are posted, her odds are 7–1, the same as Foxface.
  • From the morning line odds board, the chances a tribute from the first 6 districts will win is approximately 126%, which is a high normal for the sum of probabilities in a typical real-life betting board. If the last 6 districts have odds that are exact copies, then the total outcome sums up to an absurd 250%.
  • Nevertheless, the District 1 and 2 tributes have a 70.83% chance of winning the games, consistent with how the Career Tributes were highly favored by the Capitol, but still giving enough chance for all the remaining districts except for possibly District 12 to get at least one male and one female victor in the previous 73 games.
    • This already pushes the odds of the remaining 20 tributes to only 68-1 if the odds sum up to 100%, and to only 36-1 of the odds sum up to 125%. This is lower than even the District 3 female's odds of winning! (From 29.17%/20 = 1.459% and 54.17%/20 = 2.709% respectively).